EV: 90% Market Share

  • Norway plans to phase out out gas guzzlers by 2025, but it might reach this goal in April 2022, three years ahead of schedule. As of September 2021, the market share of EVs in Norway is 90%.
  • Once EV sales pass a critical point, it becomes self-reinforcing as infrastructure, regulations, social norms, practices and resale value follow the overwhelming market leader.
  • ICE might still be needed in exceptional or industrial use cases. For general commuting, hybrids are a plausible alternative to pure ICE - use electricity when available, fossil fuel when not.
  • Nonetheless, a major legacy auto brand is promoting hybrids as the way to go - this is like making a transition from horse-drawn buggies to motorcars by tethering a few horses behind the car. Eventually, the ecosystem must decidedly leave the horses behind and strike out in a motorised direction, solving issues as they arise and not resorting to horses anymore.
  • An outstanding EV issue to resolve is energy resilience. In UK now, ICE owners are having a tough time due to fuel shortages caused by a lack of tanker drivers while EV owners are in the clear. But the situation could reverse, for example during a grid meltdown. This could addressed by decentralised power generation etc.
  • The EV industry is still in its infancy. Whilst Tesla, major legacy brands like GM and VW, and newcomers like Lucid and Nio get the attention, there is a myriad of up and coming smaller players.
  • In the West, e-bikes are the rage as barriers to market entry are much lower as compared to cars (which are governed by a mountain of regulations).
  • In the East, specifically in CN, flying below the radar is a trend of zany designs. This is possible because the EV ecosystem in CN has advanced enough to separate design (or system integration) from manufacture together with a large plethora of suppliers.
  • This is similar to how in semiconductors, chip purveyors focus on marketing, sales and design and have chips fabricated at outsourced foundries. Like in the case of TSMC, long-time Apple subcontractor Foxconn has already made first steps in this direction by starting EV foundries in Ohio and Thailand.