Three Days

Finely Poised
  • The graph of the total number of Covid-19 cases in CN (middle panel) has flattened indicating the number of new cases is lessening. However, the situation is still finely poised as CN is looking to scale back quarantines and restart work. If containment is successful, the graph should remain flat or head south, but if not, it could rise again.
  • The graph for the rest of the world (right panel) has gained a steep upward trajectory due to emerging cases in KR, IT, IR and JP (left panel). The US joins the chart due to returnees from the cruise ship Diamond Princess.

Mask Economics
  • As more locations, countries and continents catch the bug, the demand for face masks will likely accelerate as even countries not affected will look to buy ahead or stock pile.
  • Ditto sanitisers, protective gear, certain drugs and possibly even groceries.
  • Producers will be under great pressure and could fulfil orders on a first-order-first-served or highest-bidder basis.

Three Days
  • It would not be amiss to keep an eye on the food, medical, industrial and liquidity supply chains, in case a global quarantine or run disrupt these.
  • Particularly food. Although people need air and water more acutely, these two have shorter supply chains, whereas food supply chains are longer.
  • How critical is food? According to some commentators, three days. Three days without food and chaos will ensure. You can test this yourself. Tomorrow, skip breakfast, lunch and dinner (you can drink water) and extrapolate to three days.

[This post is opinion, not by subject matter experts, and is intended for thought exploration only,]