FIFO Grocery

  • The 'knock out' rate of nCoV is currently quoted at around 1-2%. This has led to some suggestions it might only be slightly worse than flu. The rate could be after extensive hospitalisation, not the rate 'in the wild'.
  • What also isn't much reported is the 'debilitation' (severe symptoms) rate. 'Debilitation' can be more logistically intensive than 'knock out', like a wounded soldier will require rescue, evacuation and treatment. One report quoted a nCoV 'debilitation' rate of around 15%. 1 2 3
  • Thus, it is not amiss for individuals, businesses and countries to take nCoV seriously, depending on their risk appeitite, unless it is otherwise proven to be just another flu. 4 5

  • Say, a remote island has its groceries delivered by ship every month. One day, at the beginning of the month, news arrive via satellite internet of a possible shortage of groceries at the source. Islanders quickly rush to supermarkets to stock up.
  • In a few days, a whole month's groceries are snapped up. But the next delivery ship is only arriving in three weeks' time. Those who did not have the chance to stock up are now faced with the prospect of a bare larder for three weeks. That's why 'runs' are inadvisable.
  • At normal times, it is OK to acquire a FIFO grocery reserve [post title and image]. This will help buffer the supply chain during eventualities.

  • The first wave is the virus, the second could be the economic effects. This is best mitigated by 'carrying on' business as usual and not get into a 'run mode' as described in the previous section. It would also help to work on missions bigger than nCoV.
  • Over the weekend, we were at Batu Caves for some Thaipusam photo taking. The kavadi carriers had walked miles under the blistering sun on barefoot on roads surfaced with gravel, stones and debris. They then joined a long queue at the compound before inching up the stairs to the caves, all the while shouldering the heavy kavadi. There were no face masks, nCoV was probably not in the minds of the kavadi carriers. 6

  • If you are unable to summon Uber, it may be because a previous rider in a ride-share car you rode in was found to be a possible nCoV case. 7
  • Hotels & cruises are shunning high risk customers, will Airbnb follow suite? 8
  • After Wuhan, the next most affected province is Guangdong, where WeChat, DJI and Huawei are located. 9
  • Due to the amount of remote working, messaging apps could take a hit, time to brush up on the art of terse SMS (or explore Line, Telegram, Skype). 10
  • Since the restaurant business is slow, Alibaba is hiring restaurant staff for food delivery. 11 12 13 14